Is Your College Safe? Check Financial Health Before May 1
442 private colleges are projected at risk of closing. Before you commit May 1, here's how to check your school's financial health in under an hour.
By Jorbi TeamMore than one in four private colleges in the United States is now projected to close or merge within the next decade. That number comes from Huron Consulting Group's April 13 analysis, published two days ago, and it puts 442 of 1,700 private nonprofits in the crosshairs. If you have a May 1 deposit deadline sitting in your inbox right now, this is the piece you need to read before you write that check.
One thing upfront: most schools on your list are probably fine. But "probably fine" isn't the same as "definitely fine," and the difference is about 90 minutes of free research you can do this weekend. Here's exactly how.
What the Huron Report Actually Says (and Why May 1 Changes Everything)
Peter Stokes, Managing Director at Huron, put it plainly in the Hechinger Report: "We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms. So over the coming five to 10 years, this shakeout is going to take place." The 442-school projection is already 19.5% worse than Huron's 2022 estimate of 370. More than 120 institutions fall into the "very highest risk" category, and those schools collectively serve 670,000 students.
The timing matters. May 1 is the near-universal commitment deadline for admitted students, which means hundreds of thousands of families are making four-year, five-figure decisions right now without knowing this data exists.
Private college closures in 2026 are not hypothetical. Four schools have already announced closures this calendar year: Labouré College of Healthcare in Massachusetts, Lourdes University in Ohio, Providence Christian College in California, and California College of the Arts, which is selling its campus to Vanderbilt. Sterling College in Vermont is finishing its final semester right now, the seventh Vermont private college to close since 2016. BestColleges research counted 28 nonprofit closures in 2024 alone, the highest recent-year total, followed by 16 more in 2025.
The student outcomes after a closure are sobering. Fewer than half of displaced students continue their educations at all, and of those who do continue, fewer than half eventually earn degrees, per SHEEO research. Seven out of ten students at closed colleges receive little or no advance warning, as Hechinger's reporting on closure patterns has documented.
You have 16 days to do your homework.
The 6 Financial Warning Signs Students Can Actually Check
Before getting into the tools, you need to know what you're looking for. These are the six signals that show up consistently in the financial records of schools that close. All of them are visible in free public data.
1. Enrollment Decline
This is the single most predictive indicator. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia research found that a 10% or greater drop from a school's five-year enrollment peak is a significant red flag, and a 5%+ annual decline for three consecutive years carries extremely high predictive power for closure.
Lourdes University enrolled 2,500 students in 2011. By the time it announced closure in February 2026, that number had fallen to 964, a 62% drop that was visible in public data for years. Labouré lost 55% of its enrollment in just four years, from Fall 2020 to Fall 2024.
2. Endowment Per Student
A school's total endowment sounds impressive until you divide it by enrollment. Here's what the 2026 closures looked like: Lourdes had about $9,752 per student, Labouré had roughly $17,736 per student, and Providence Christian had $151 per student ($25,322 total endowment for 168 students). A well-endowed private college typically holds $50,000 to $200,000 or more per student. Below $15,000 per student combined with declining enrollment is a serious combination.
3. Operating Deficits
Philadelphia Fed research found that more than one-fourth of colleges that closed posted operating losses in at least three of the five years before closure, twice the rate of colleges that stayed open. One bad year happens. Three bad years in five is a pattern worth taking seriously.
4. Tuition Dependency Above 80-90%
Private colleges that derive 80 to 90 percent of their revenue from tuition are extremely vulnerable to enrollment drops. When students leave, the money leaves with them. AcademicJobs.com's analysis of the 2026 closures cited heavy tuition dependency as a common thread across Lourdes, Labouré, and Providence Christian.
5. Federal Heightened Cash Monitoring (HCM)
The Department of Education places financially struggling schools on Heightened Cash Monitoring. Level 1 means they're watching. Level 2 is serious: the school has to front-fund student disbursements before the government reimburses it. HCM Level 2 is one of the strongest statistical warning signs you can find in public data.
6. Accreditor Sanctions
Regional accreditors publish their warning notices and probation orders publicly. If your school has received a "show cause" order (essentially a demand to prove why accreditation shouldn't be revoked) or is listed on probation with its regional accreditor, that information is on the accreditor's website right now.
How to Check Your College's Financial Health Using Free Tools
Here are the specific places to look, in the order I'd check them.
Start with College Scorecard. Search your school and look for any Heightened Cash Monitoring flag. This is the fastest single check you can do, and it's the most actionable. A school on HCM Level 2 warrants a serious conversation before you commit. Also check the retention rate trend: a school losing a significant chunk of students after freshman year sends both a financial signal and a quality signal.
Then go to IPEDS. Click "Use the Data," then "Look Up an Institution." Pull the Fall Enrollment tab and map out 10 years of headcount data. You're looking for the trend, not a single number. Under Finance, pull revenues by source and divide net tuition revenue by total core revenues to get the tuition dependency ratio. Then look at endowment assets and divide by total enrollment. This takes about 20 minutes once you're in the system, and it tells you a lot.
Run the school through ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer. Most private colleges are registered nonprofits, which means their IRS Form 990 filings are public. The 990 shows you total revenues, total expenses, net income or loss, total assets, and total liabilities year by year. Labouré's FY2024 990 was publicly accessible before the closure announcement and showed a net loss of $5,683,647 on $14.2 million in revenue. That's a 40% loss ratio sitting in a freely searchable document.
Check your school's regional accreditor website. Find the right one for your school (HLC covers the Midwest, NECHE covers New England, SACSCOC covers the South, WSCUC covers the West, MSCHE covers the Mid-Atlantic). Each publishes a public list of schools with active sanctions, warnings, or probation orders. A school on probation is at acute risk.
Check University Death Pool's Collegiate Survivability Index. The name sounds morbid, but this is a legitimate data-driven model that correctly flagged Limestone University and St. Andrews University as high-risk months before their closures were announced. It combines an adjusted Composite Financial Index with enrollment and demographic indicators into a percentile survivability score. Free to check.
For Forbes Financial Grades, the MAPS Project Financial Health Dashboard compiles them for 900+ private nonprofit colleges. In 2024, 182 private colleges received a D grade, up from just 20 in 2021. If your school is on that list, you want to know.
What Actually Happens to Students If a College Closes
So if you've found some warning signs, how worried should you be? Informed is the right level. Here's the realistic picture.
Federal regulations and accreditation standards require closing schools to submit teach-out plans to their accreditors. A proper teach-out agreement with a partner institution should accept credit transfers, offer comparable tuition, and guarantee admission to eligible students. The 2026 closures mostly handled this reasonably well: Labouré students were absorbed by Curry College, Lourdes students got a pathway to University of Toledo, and Providence Christian arranged automatic admission agreements with six institutions including Biola University and Calvin University.
The loan situation is worth understanding clearly. Per CFPB guidance, if you decline a teach-out offer and your school closes, you may be eligible for full federal loan discharge, meaning your loans are cancelled and previous payments refunded. As of April 2024, the Education Department had discharged $22.5 billion for 1.3 million borrowers from closed schools. If you accept a teach-out, you remain responsible for repaying your loans.
The harder truth: seven out of ten students at closed colleges get little to no advance warning. Burlington College once gave students less than two weeks' notice, which is legally permissible. Institutional scholarships don't transfer to new schools. Specialized or upper-division credits may not transfer. Even with the best teach-out arrangement, you're starting over in some meaningful ways.
Sixteen days of research now is much easier than transferring mid-semester later.
What to Do Before May 1
Five specific steps. Do them this weekend.
1. Run the 20-minute IPEDS check. Go to nces.ed.gov/ipeds, look up your school, and pull 10 years of Fall Enrollment data plus the Finance tab. Calculate the enrollment trend and rough tuition dependency ratio. Write down the numbers.
2. Search ProPublica for the last three years of 990 filings. Go to projects.propublica.org/nonprofits, search your school by name, and look at net income for each of the last three years. Two or more years showing a net loss is worth noting. Growing losses are more concerning than stable ones.
3. Check HCM status on College Scorecard. Go to collegescorecard.ed.gov, search your school, and look for any Heightened Cash Monitoring designation. HCM Level 2 is a red flag that warrants a direct conversation with the school before you commit.
4. Look up your school's accreditor and check the sanctions list. A 10-minute search on the accreditor's website tells you whether your school is in good standing, on warning, or on probation. Good standing means proceed. Anything else means ask questions.
5. If you find multiple warning signs, call the financial aid office directly. Ask: "Can you tell me about your enrollment trends over the last five years and the school's current financial position?" Their answer, or non-answer, is data. A school confident in its finances will answer clearly. A school that deflects or gets defensive is telling you something too.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know if my college is on the Huron list of 442 at-risk schools?
Huron declined to publish the names of specific institutions. There's no list to look up, which is exactly why you need to run your own check using the tools above: IPEDS enrollment trends, ProPublica 990 filings, and the College Scorecard HCM flag. The research takes under two hours and tells you more than any published list would.
My school is small and religious. Should I be more worried?
Statistically, yes, with some nuance. Small private colleges where tuition is expensive relative to perceived value are most vulnerable. Faith-based schools with limited donor bases and high religious-subsidy dependency face additional pressure. But plenty of small religious colleges have strong endowments, stable enrollment, and healthy finances. The metrics matter more than the category.
What if I find warning signs but really want to attend this school?
Keep your options open while you dig deeper. Contact the school's financial aid office and ask directly about enrollment trends and financial health. That conversation alone tells you something: a school confident in its finances will answer clearly. You can also ask for a copy of the most recent audited financial statements. Then check whether the school is in good standing with its regional accreditor. If everything you find is reassuring, you can commit with more confidence. If the school won't answer or the numbers look bad, that's real information.
What is Heightened Cash Monitoring and where do I find it?
Heightened Cash Monitoring is a federal oversight status the Department of Education applies to financially struggling institutions. Level 2 (HCM2) is the more serious designation: it means the school must pay student aid disbursements out of its own funds and wait for federal reimbursement, which strains cash flow significantly. You can check HCM status on College Scorecard or in the downloadable data from Federal Student Aid. Search your school, then look under the financial information section for any active HCM flag.
Is it too late to change my decision if I find something alarming?
No. Most schools allow you to retract a deposit before May 1, and some will work with you even after. If you've already deposited somewhere and find serious red flags at that school, call your backup schools immediately. Explain the situation. Some will extend their own deadlines for students in exactly this position. It's an awkward conversation, but far less awkward than transferring mid-semester.
You may love this school. Good. Go in with your eyes open anyway. Sixteen days, a few free tools, and about two hours of research is all it takes to know whether you're committing to solid ground or something shakier. That's worth doing before you send the deposit.